Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test Odds & Prediction
Last updated: 2 September 2026
The Springboks face the All Blacks in the third Test of the 2026 Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series at FNB Stadium in Soweto, Johannesburg, on Saturday, 5 September 2026.
With the four-Test series tied 1-1, the third Test is effectively a pivotal match for both teams. South Africa won the second Test 33-26 in Cape Town after New Zealand won the opening match 33-16 in Johannesburg.
For South African rugby bettors, the biggest question is not simply whether the Springboks can win. The latest market suggests South Africa is the clear favourite, making the handicap market particularly interesting.
Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test odds
The latest publicly verifiable South African bookmaker prices show South Africa as the strong favourite.
| Market | Best/latest verified odds |
|---|---|
| Springboks win | 1.34–1.40 |
| New Zealand win | 3.40 |
| Draw | 16.50–26.00 |
| South Africa -6.5 | 1.80 |
| New Zealand +6.5 | 1.90 |
| South Africa -8.5 | 1.85 |
| New Zealand +8.5 | 1.95 |
Odds checked: 2 September 2026. Prices can change before kick-off.
Sportingbet’s current market lists South Africa at 1.34, New Zealand at 3.40 and the draw at 16.50, with South Africa -6.5 priced at 1.80.
Interbet currently has South Africa at 1.40, New Zealand at 3.40 and the draw at 26.00, while its handicap is South Africa -8.5 at 1.85 and New Zealand +8.5 at 1.95.
TopBetZA odds note: These are the latest odds we could publicly verify. They should not be described as the best odds across every South African bookmaker because prices from every major bookmaker could not be independently verified.
Who is favourite to win the 3rd Test?
The Springboks are the clear betting favourites.
South Africa’s match-winner price is currently around 1.34 to 1.40, while New Zealand is available around 3.40 at the bookmakers publicly showing the market.
That means the betting market expects South Africa to win at FNB Stadium, although the handicap market presents a more complicated picture.
The difference between the straight win market and the handicap market is important.
A bettor backing South Africa simply to win is taking a relatively short price. A handicap bet requires the Springboks to win by a specified number of points, offering a potentially higher return but also requiring a bigger winning margin.
Springboks vs All Blacks handicap odds
The handicap market could be the most interesting part of this Test.
Sportingbet currently has South Africa -6.5 at 1.80, with New Zealand +6.5 at 1.90.
Interbet has moved the handicap to South Africa -8.5 at 1.85, with New Zealand +8.5 at 1.95.
That difference tells us something about how the market is being priced.
The bookmakers are not simply expecting a South African victory. They are also asking bettors to decide whether the Springboks can win by more than roughly one converted try.
Why the handicap matters
South Africa’s first two Tests against New Zealand this series have produced very different results.
- New Zealand 33-16 South Africa
- South Africa 33-26 New Zealand
The second Test was decided by only seven points, despite the Springboks winning.
That makes the handicap more difficult to call than the match-winner market.
Springboks vs All Blacks prediction
TopBetZA prediction: Springboks to win
The home advantage, the market price and South Africa’s response in Cape Town all point towards the Springboks entering the third Test as favourites.
However, New Zealand has already demonstrated that it can put South Africa under pressure in this series.
The safer prediction from a match-result perspective is therefore:
Prediction: South Africa to win
For bettors considering the handicap, the decision is more difficult. The available lines range from South Africa -6.5 to -8.5, meaning the required winning margin has become an important part of the betting equation.
Why South Africa are favourites
1. Home advantage
The third Test will be played at FNB Stadium in Soweto, in front of a huge South African crowd.
The venue has a capacity of around 94,500, and the match is expected to be played in a major home atmosphere.
2. The Springboks bounced back in Cape Town
After losing the opening Test 33-16, South Africa responded with a 33-26 victory in the second Test.
That result levelled the series at 1-1 and gave the Springboks momentum heading into the Johannesburg Test.
3. Rassie Erasmus has largely kept faith with his combinations
Erasmus has opted for continuity after the Cape Town victory, making changes mainly because of injury and selection decisions rather than completely rebuilding the side.
The biggest backline change is the move of Cheslin Kolbe to fullback following Damian Willemse’s injury. Kurt-Lee Arendse returns on the wing.
Damian Willemse injury: what it means for the Springboks
One of the biggest pieces of team news is the absence of Damian Willemse.
Willemse suffered a hamstring injury during the second Test and is unavailable for the FNB Stadium match.
Erasmus has moved Cheslin Kolbe from wing to fullback, while Kurt-Lee Arendse comes into the starting XV on the wing.
The injury is reportedly not considered serious enough to rule Willemse out of the final Test in Baltimore.
That positional switch is particularly important for bettors because Kolbe’s role changes the composition of South Africa’s back three.
Springboks team for the 3rd Test
15. Cheslin Kolbe
- Kurt-Lee Arendse
- Jesse Kriel
- Damian de Allende
- Ethan Hooker
- Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
- Cobus Reinach
- Jasper Wiese
- Pieter-Steph du Toit
- Siya Kolisi (captain)
- Ruan Nortje
- Eben Etzebeth
- Wilco Louw
- Malcolm Marx
- Ox Nche
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Morne van den Berg and Manie Libbok.
Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test key betting factors
South Africa moneyline
The Springboks are priced around 1.34–1.40 in the latest verified markets.
That makes South Africa the obvious market favourite, but the relatively short price means bettors are accepting a smaller potential return.
New Zealand moneyline
New Zealand is currently around 3.40 in the verified markets.
The higher price reflects the All Blacks’ underdog status, but their 33-16 win in the opening Test demonstrates why they cannot simply be dismissed.
South Africa handicap
The handicap has moved around the -6.5 to -8.5 range.
This is arguably the more interesting market for experienced bettors because South Africa can win the match without necessarily covering the handicap.
New Zealand handicap
New Zealand +6.5 or +8.5 gives the All Blacks additional points.
Considering the seven-point margin in the Cape Town Test, the handicap deserves attention if you believe another closely contested match is likely.
Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test: best bet?
There is no guaranteed bet, and odds can move significantly before kick-off.
From the currently available market, the clearest betting signal is:
Match winner: Springboks
The handicap is less straightforward because bookmakers are currently pricing South Africa around 6.5 to 8.5 points ahead.
For bettors who expect another tight Test, New Zealand +6.5/+8.5 becomes an interesting line to consider. For those expecting South Africa to control the match at home, the Springboks handicap offers a higher-risk route than the straight win.
When is Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test?
The third Test is scheduled for:
Date: Saturday, 5 September 2026
Venue: FNB Stadium, Soweto, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17:10 SAST
Series: Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry
Series score: 1-1
Where can South Africans bet on Springboks vs All Blacks?
South African bettors can find the match across licensed bookmakers offering rugby markets, including the publicly verified markets from Sportingbet and Interbet.
Always compare prices before placing a wager because odds can differ between bookmakers and can change before kick-off.
Only use licensed South African betting operators, and remember that gambling involves financial risk.
Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test FAQs
Who is favourite to win the Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test?
The Springboks are the favourites. Current verified prices put South Africa around 1.34 to 1.40, compared with around 3.40 for New Zealand.
What are the Springboks vs All Blacks 3rd Test odds?
The latest verified match-winner odds are approximately 1.34–1.40 for South Africa, 3.40 for New Zealand and 16.50–26.00 for the draw.
What is the Springboks handicap?
Current verified handicap lines range from approximately South Africa -6.5 to -8.5, depending on the bookmaker.
Is Damian Willemse playing?
No. Willemse is unavailable for the third Test after suffering a hamstring injury in the second Test. Cheslin Kolbe moves to fullback, with Kurt-Lee Arendse returning on the wing.
Where is the third Test being played?
The match is being played at FNB Stadium in Soweto, Johannesburg.
What is the series score?
The series is currently 1-1. New Zealand won the first Test 33-16, while South Africa won the second Test 33-26.
What is the TopBetZA prediction?
Springboks to win, but the handicap market is considerably harder to call because the current lines sit between roughly 6.5 and 8.5 points.
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